Blogs for McCain

Right after our primary, I mentioned on my blog what made me sit up and take notice about the Pennsylvania primary results.  If McCain plays his cards right, we could swing Pennsylvania red.

The population is weighted heavily toward Philadelphia and the four bedroom counties surrounding it: Bucks, Montgomery, Chester, and Delaware. Pittsburgh is (comparatively) conservative, Pennsylvania’s blue-collar city. The rest of the state, barring areas dominated by university campuses, is solid God-guns-and-guts country.

Here’s what Bull Dog Pundit said:

What shocked the hell out of me is that Hillary Clinton [won] Montgomery and Bucks County - 2 of the 4 “bedroom counties” collaring Philadelphia.

And here are the results from those four counties (you can see the official results here):

Bucks County:
62.6% - 37.4%, Clinton - Obama

Montgomery County:
50.7% - 49.3%, Clinton - Obama

Chester County:
44.8% - 55.2%, Clinton - Obama

Delaware County:
44.6% - 55.4%, Clinton - Obama

A lot of those centrist to conservative Democrats who voted for Hillary may very well vote for McCain in November. McCain will get the rural Pennsylvania vote and probably the Pittsburgh suburban vote. In order to get the 21 electoral votes, he needs to swing those Philadelphia bedroom counties.

He may very well carry Bucks and Montgomerey counties. Chester and Delaware will be uphill battles, but if McCain campaigns hard and focuses on the economy and national security, he could chip away at Obama’s lead there. As those four counties go, so goes the Commonwealth.

Obama’s lead state-wide isn’t large (the largest recent spread I’ve seen was ten points). Pennsylvania right now is at best weak, or leaning Democrat. In the primary, Obama only carried ten counties, and Hillary carried the other fifty-seven. I’d love to see McCain come campaign here, but this part of the state is safe McCain. He needs to hit those four counties, and hit them hard (and forget Philadelphia).

Remember, also that Obama’s weakness is his demographic. The “youth vote” has yet to materialize in a general election, at least since I’ve been paying attention, and that would be since 1972. McCain can, I believe, swing Pennsylvania, if he campaigns hard in the right areas and on the right issues.

Twenty-one electoral votes ain’t nothin to sneeze at, folks. And Pennsylvania ain’t Massachusetts.